Mid-/long-term global forecast for the automotive industry powertrain mix

On behalf of multiple clients in the automotive industry (OEMs and Tier1s), Arthur D. Little conducted a 2035 forecast of the powertrain mix in 13 key automobile markets.


Rising demand in developing countries is projected to be the largest driver behind the expected steady, long-term growth in the global automotive market. 


However, as each country considers its own environmental, energy, and industrial policies, the landscape surrounding the automotive market is predicted to become progressively diversified.


Thus, it will become increasingly important for auto makers and parts makers to examine how automotive demand in each country changes the powertrain mix, and the relevant impact on mid-/long-term development strategies.


Arthur D. Little deployed its global network in the 13 countries that make up around 75% of the world’s demand for passenger vehicles (Japan, the US, Germany, France, England, China, Russia, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Australia), and evaluated mid-/long-term macro-market trends surrounding the automotive market. Additionally- the powertrain development trends among the main global manufacturers were researched and analyzed. 


On this basis we built a quantitative, multi-scenario forecast of how the powertrain mix would change in each country over both the mid-term (as of 2025) and the long-term (as of 2035). In addition to the data analysis, we conducted nearly 100 interviews with OEMs, suppliers, and various governmental bodies in each region around the world.


In addition to quantitative figures, the study presents a systematic analysis of the underlying structural factors and mechanisms influencing the powertrain mix in multiple scenarios. It also looks at the differences in those factors and mechanisms between each country, with a time scope up to 2035.

Compared to other studies, whose forecasts usually cover the next 15 years, this study covers a longer period, extending to 20 and 30, with quantitative forecasts for each country and vehicle-type segment.